Visa Date Predictions for FY2006!
Posted Apr 15, 2005
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An American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) conference was held in Washington DC, on April 11, 2005. There representatives from the highest levels of the government dealing with immigration law issues met with leading immigration lawyers to exchange information and have an informative discussion on various business immigration matters.
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Fostering a spirit of learning, we at The Law Office of Sheela Murthy have chosen to share most of the information from that conference with our readers. The exchange of ideas among attorneys and the government is a mutually beneficial and symbiotic relationship. Several attorneys from our law firm were active both in the planning and the implementation of this conference. Attorney Sheela Murthy was a speaker as well as moderator of the panel on Business Visas for Professionals, where Robert Divine, the Chief Counsel of the USCIS, and Efren Hernandez, Branch Chief, Policy and Programs at USCIS, had a lively discussion on important issues like the 20,000 H1Bs, E-1s, L-1s, and B-1s in lieu of H1Bs. Attorney Aron Finkelstein from our Office was Vice Chair of the organizing committee for this conference and helped in inviting several of the speakers. Attorney Anastasia Laou, also from The Law Office of Sheela Murthy, assisted on another panel for the conference. It was an excellent conference and we are glad for this opportunity to share the latest information to help our clients and other MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers.
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Retrogression Predictions
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A senior level official from the U.S. Department of State (DOS), Mr. Charles Oppenheim, primarily responsible for retrogression and priority dates, shared his predictions of the movement of visa numbers and retrogression for the upcoming fiscal year. The DOS is responsible for tracking visa number usage and availability, and releasing the monthly Visa Bulletin that indicates visa number availability based on priority dates. Readers unfamiliar with retrogression should review our September 24, 2004 MurthyBulletin article, Priority Dates May Retrogress, and our December 10, 2004 NewsFlash, Employment Visa Numbers Retrogress!, both available on MurthyDotCom.
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EB2 Retrogression Expected in FY2006
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Mr. Oppenheim indicated that, based on currently available data, he believes the Employment-Based Second Preference (EB2) category for certain members of the professions holding advance degrees or persons of exceptional ability will not likely retrogress for the remainder of the current fiscal year. He does expect retrogression to occur in EB2 for nationals of mainland China and India starting sometime in fiscal year (FY) 2006 (October 1, 2005 through September 30, 2006). The predicted EB2 retrogression is not expected until the latter half of FY2006. The affected countries will likely only be India and mainland China, not the Philippines in the EB2 category.
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EB3 Retrogression Expected to Continue
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The Employment-Based Third Preference Other Worker (EB3-OW) category for semi-skilled and unskilled workers is likely to continue to retrogress further since demand in this category is apt to increase. The number of immigrant visas available will be reduced from 10,000 to only 5,000 due to usage under the Nicaraguan Adjustment and Central American Relief Act (NACARA). More details on this likely continued retrogression are discussed in our NewsFlash, posted on MurthyDotCom April 14, 2005.
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There is better news on the EB3 Skilled / Professional Worker category, which is more relevant for most MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers. The EB3 skilled / professional worker category is for those in positions in which the job duties require a minimum of either a bachelor's degree or at least two years of training or experience. This category, which experienced retrogression starting on January 1, 2005 for persons from India, mainland China, and the Philippines, should continue to see forward movement in the priority dates.
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Mr. Oppenheim shared in advance that the May 2005 Visa Bulletin is expected to show that persons who have priority dates before June 1, 2002, will be able to file an I-485 application to adjust status or pursue consular processing beginning May 1, 2005. The DOS is working carefully in an attempt to prevent any further EB3 retrogressions for now.
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EB1 No Retrogression Expected
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Mr. Oppenheim believes that, based on current and expected usage, EB1 cases are not expected to retrogress at any point in the foreseeable future. EB1 is for "priority workers" who fit within the category of extraordinary ability, outstanding professor / researcher, or certain Multinational Executives / Managers.
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Conclusion
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This summary of the anticipated movement of dates from the DOS's most authoritative source on this issue will help MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers to plan and strategize. We at The Law Office of Sheela Murthy invest in learning and sharing information with those who need to understand the complexities of U.S. immigration law.